英语翻译11月9日消息,美国经济研究联合会（ConferenceBoard）预期,未来五年发达国家的复甦成果将被新兴经济

英语翻译
11月9日消息,美国经济研究联合会（ConferenceBoard）预期,未来五年发达国家的复甦成果将被新兴经济体放缓的步调所抵销,全球经济增长的幅度到2025年平均约为3%.
美国经济研究联合会8日发布的预测报告显示,全球国内生产总值（GDP）明年可望增长3.2%,在2013至2016年将加速到3.5%,而从2017至2025年经济增长率预测平均为2.7%.以上这些时期的经济扩张速度皆低于1996至2005年衰退发生前的3.6%.
报告指出,中期经济增长加速的动力大部分将来自美国、欧元区和日本等发达国家.这些已开发国家明年的经济增长率预测为1.3%,并在接下来四年增长到2%,但在2017至2025年将放缓至1.9%.
以中国和印度为领头羊的新兴国家,明年整体GDP可望增速至5.1%,然后将逐渐趋缓,2013至2016年经济增长率预测为4.9%,之后至2025年将降至3.4%.
经济研究联合会首席经济学家范雅克（BartvanArk）说,其中最令人惊讶的是中国经济减速的幅度.中国明年的增长率预测为8.7%,2013至2016年将降至6.6%,2017至2025年仅3.5%.
不过这份报告预期,按购买力平价计算来比较,中国将在2015年超越美国成为全球最大经济体.
范雅克说,中国必须从以出口为导向转变为以内需市场为主的经济,这样的转变加上国内人口增长减缓,会成为中国经济增速的动力.
此外,这段期间新兴国家中产阶级人数的增长,将协助全球市场适应先进国家中产阶级需求的衰减.但全球经济产值下降,将造成人均收入增幅缩水的风险.
对先进国家来说,收入增长减缓代表医疗照护和退休计划能取得的资金更少.美国和欧洲已面临国家福利计划无以为继的局面.

November 9, U.S. Economic Research Consortium (ConferenceBoard) expected recovery in the next five years the results will be developed in emerging economies offset a slowdown in the pace of global economic growth rate in 2025 averaged about 3 %.
8 American Federation of Economic Research report released forecasts, global gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 3.2% next year, in 2013-2016 will accelerate to 3.5%, and from 2017 to 2025 economic growth forecast to average of 2.7%. These periods are lower than the rate of economic expansion from 1996 to 2005 to 3.6% before the recession.
The report notes that medium-term economic growth accelerated momentum will come from the United States, the euro zone and Japan and other developed countries. These developed countries next year's economic growth forecast of 1.3%, and growth in the next four years to 2%, but in 2017-2025 will slow to 1.9%.
China and India emerging as the leader of the country, is expected to overall GDP growth next year to 5.1%, then gradually slow down, from 2013 to 2016 economic growth forecast to 4.9%, followed by the year 2025 will fall to 3.4%.
Federation of Economic Research chief economist Fan Yake (BartvanArk) said that one of the most surprising is the magnitude of China's economic slowdown. China's growth forecast for next year of 8.7% from 2013 to 2016 will fall to 6.6% in 2017-2025 was only 3.5%.
However, the report expected to compare purchasing power parity terms, China will overtake the United States in 2015 as the world's largest economy.
Fan Yake said, China must shift from export-oriented to domestic demand-oriented economies, such a change with the domestic population growth slowed, it will become the driving force of China's economic growth.
In addition, during this period the growth of middle class in emerging countries, will help meet global market demand for advanced countries, the attenuation of the middle class. But the global decline in economic output, will result in the risk of shrinking per capita income growth.
Of advanced countries, income growth slowed health care and retirement plans on behalf of funds obtained can be less. U.S. and European countries have been faced with unsustainable welfare programs of the situation.
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